Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. elections had a significant impact on the gold price and his potential win in future elections could potentially have similar effects, subject to various factors.
1. Increase in Gold Prices: As seen in 2016, Trump’s win led to a temporary spike in gold prices due to uncertainty in the market. Investors often turn to gold, viewed as a safe-haven investment, during times of political or economic instability. Since a Trump victory can potentially disrupt the status quo and increase unpredictable changes in policy, investors anticipate these changes and move towards more stable investments like gold.
2. Weakening of the U.S. Dollar: The unpredictable nature of Trump’s policies, specifically trade and foreign policies, could potentially weaken the U.S dollar. A weak dollar usually boosts gold prices as it makes gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies. This, in turn, can increase demand for gold and thereby increase its price.
3. Influence of Fiscal Stimulus: Another factor to consider is Trump’s approach to fiscal stimulus. Historically, Trump demonstrated a willingness towards implementing tax cuts and spending increases, which could potentially increase the national debt and inflation. Increased inflation erodes the value of money and investors may resort to gold as an inflation hedge, which would increase the gold price.
4. Changes in Trade Policies: Trump’s unconventional approach to trade policies, especially his inclination towards imposing trade tariffs and entering into trade wars, creates uncertainty in the global market. Any disruption in global trade usually leads to investors seeking refuge in gold, which can trigger an increase in the price of gold.
5. Interest Rates: Trump has often called for lower interest rates, which weaken the value of the U.S. dollar and could fuel inflation. When interest rates are low, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion decreases, making gold more attractive to investors and possibly driving up its price.
In conclusion, while the actual impact of a potential Trump win on the gold price would be subject to a multitude of economical, political and global factors, history does indicate a possible increase in gold prices due to increased market uncertainty and potential weakening of the U.S. dollar.