The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a versatile indicator that can be used to identify a new trend or warn of extreme conditions. It was originally developed by Donald Lambert and introduced in Commodities magazine back in 1980.
The CCI measures the difference between a security’s price change and its average price change. Its formula is as follows:
CCI = (Typical Price – Simple Moving Average) / (0.015 * Mean Deviation)
The Typical Price (TP) is the average of the high, low, and close: (High + Low + Close)/3. The Simple Moving Average (SMA) of TP is a simple moving average of these TPs over a period of time determined as the look-back period for the CCI.
High positive values of CCI indicate that prices are well above their average, which is a show of strength. On the other hand, low negative values indicate that prices are way below their average, a show of weakness.
The CCI is used in two main ways:
1. Overbought & Oversold Levels: When the CCI moves above +100, it means the price is entering into overbought territory. This suggests that the price may start to reverse or stall. When the CCI moves below -100, it signifies that the price is becoming oversold and may start to curve back up.
2. Support & Resistance Breakouts: When charting, traders may observe patterns and the breakout of these patterns can be confirmed with a CCI breakout into overbought or oversold territory.
Despite being called the Commodity Channel Index, the CCI can be used on any type of security – not just commodities. It is important to note, however, that the CCI is just one tool among many; it should not be used as a standalone indicator but rather should be used in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis.
In real-life application, this indicator is often used by traders to identify cyclical turns in commodities, but it can also be used for equities and bonds. The CCI, when used in conjunction with other oscillators, can be a valuable tool to identify potential peaks and valleys in an asset’s price, thus providing investors with reasonable evidence to estimate future price changes.
It’s essential to remember that, like all indicators, CCI can’t guarantee future performance or predict all market trends. Traders should use this tool as part of a balanced portfolio